The flu is a worse threat.
#41 saying FACT doesn't make it a fact
@tabarjack #6
"It's all so just in time for the... US presidential election."
All candidates left are very old white men, people with a very high risk. If anything happens to all of them, maybe Pete Buttigieg makes a great comeback. ;)
"It's all so just in time for the... US presidential election."
All candidates left are very old white men, people with a very high risk. If anything happens to all of them, maybe Pete Buttigieg makes a great comeback. ;)
@Timegod flu has mortality rate of 6.9-7.3% but the (COVID-19) has a mortality rate of 5-10%
@Lee_Lie umm...I'mma need to see your source for that one, chief
@clousems oops miss read it it was 4.9% so i guise im wrong lol
Flu? I've read influenza has a mortality rate of 0.1%
"health-care workers have described a feeling of powerlessness mixed with stress and fear. They stay away from their families. They speak angrily about those who still compare the coronavirus to seasonal influenza. "
www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/italy-coronavirus-patients-lombardy-hospitals/2020/03/12/36041dc6-63ce-11ea-8a8e-5c5336b32760_story.html
"health-care workers have described a feeling of powerlessness mixed with stress and fear. They stay away from their families. They speak angrily about those who still compare the coronavirus to seasonal influenza. "
www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/italy-coronavirus-patients-lombardy-hospitals/2020/03/12/36041dc6-63ce-11ea-8a8e-5c5336b32760_story.html
@h2b2 said (#36):
> corona viruses (SARS, MERS, CONVID-19) aren't influenza.
"All A's are of class B" is not the same as "all of class B are A's". All forests consisting of trees doesn't mean all trees are in forests. Elementary logic, my dear Watson.
The real influenza is actually caused by the family of Orthomyxoviridae (Influenza A, B, C, D , H1N1, ...) but what in an overwhelming majority of cases is called "influenza" is in fact caused by members of the Coronaviridae, namely HCoV-229E (a strain of Duvinacovirus), HCoV-OC43 (a strain of Embecovirus), etc. - all with the symptoms of the common cold. There are also more dangerous variants like Merbecovirus (mostly flu-like symptoms, but sometimes also infections of the respiratorial tract and even kidney failure).
Anyhow, i wanted to write "*almost any*" but the "almost" got lost somehow in editing, which was my fault - my bad. I hope i could clear it up now.
> What are your qualifications?
Hans W. Doerr, Wolfram H. Gerlich (editors): Medizinische Virologie – Grundlagen, Diagnostik und Therapie virologischer Krankheitsbilder. Thieme, Stuttgart / New York 2002, ISBN 3-13-113961-7.
David M. Knipe, Peter M. Howley et al. (editors): Fields’ Virology. 2 volumes, 5th ed., Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, Philadelphia 2007, ISBN 978-0-7817-6060-7
Susanne Modrow, Dietrich Falke, Uwe Truyen: Molekulare Virologie. Eine Einführung für Biologen und Mediziner. (= Spektrum-Lehrbuch). 2nd ed., Spektrum Akademischer Verlag, Heidelberg 2002, ISBN 3-8274-1086-X.
@Panagrellus said (#39):
> With coronavirus, we are (in Germany) at the beginning of an epidemic wave,
> where a new virus with a transmission number of >2 hits an immunologically naive population.
Well, first i have cursory knowledge of what a exponential function is. Second, even in your own scenario with ~650k infected people in 2 months and a projected mortality rate of 1% we would have ~6500 deathes. That is still only half of the yearly death toll of the MRSA, which is similarily contagious and not treatable at all. Please do not confuse the number of *infection* cases with the number of death victims.
Furthermore, my point was not that we should concentrate on MRSA (or any other disease) instead of this infection. I just wanted to point out with this example that we already face equally or even more deadly diseases for years without going into panic mode like now. In opposition to CoVID19 we know pretty well where MRSA comes from (basically the abuse of antibiotics in intensive mass animal farming for decades, which rendered many antibiotics effectless) and we cannot be bothered to do anything about it. Do you know of any hospital being closed because a lot of people get infected and die? Do you know of any measure to restrict antibiotics use in animal farming? But for this new disease we should go into "social quarantine"? That is laughable - not because of being wrong, but because of being so inconsistent with what we usually do with dangers of similar scope - which is: nothing.
krasnaya
> corona viruses (SARS, MERS, CONVID-19) aren't influenza.
"All A's are of class B" is not the same as "all of class B are A's". All forests consisting of trees doesn't mean all trees are in forests. Elementary logic, my dear Watson.
The real influenza is actually caused by the family of Orthomyxoviridae (Influenza A, B, C, D , H1N1, ...) but what in an overwhelming majority of cases is called "influenza" is in fact caused by members of the Coronaviridae, namely HCoV-229E (a strain of Duvinacovirus), HCoV-OC43 (a strain of Embecovirus), etc. - all with the symptoms of the common cold. There are also more dangerous variants like Merbecovirus (mostly flu-like symptoms, but sometimes also infections of the respiratorial tract and even kidney failure).
Anyhow, i wanted to write "*almost any*" but the "almost" got lost somehow in editing, which was my fault - my bad. I hope i could clear it up now.
> What are your qualifications?
Hans W. Doerr, Wolfram H. Gerlich (editors): Medizinische Virologie – Grundlagen, Diagnostik und Therapie virologischer Krankheitsbilder. Thieme, Stuttgart / New York 2002, ISBN 3-13-113961-7.
David M. Knipe, Peter M. Howley et al. (editors): Fields’ Virology. 2 volumes, 5th ed., Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, Philadelphia 2007, ISBN 978-0-7817-6060-7
Susanne Modrow, Dietrich Falke, Uwe Truyen: Molekulare Virologie. Eine Einführung für Biologen und Mediziner. (= Spektrum-Lehrbuch). 2nd ed., Spektrum Akademischer Verlag, Heidelberg 2002, ISBN 3-8274-1086-X.
@Panagrellus said (#39):
> With coronavirus, we are (in Germany) at the beginning of an epidemic wave,
> where a new virus with a transmission number of >2 hits an immunologically naive population.
Well, first i have cursory knowledge of what a exponential function is. Second, even in your own scenario with ~650k infected people in 2 months and a projected mortality rate of 1% we would have ~6500 deathes. That is still only half of the yearly death toll of the MRSA, which is similarily contagious and not treatable at all. Please do not confuse the number of *infection* cases with the number of death victims.
Furthermore, my point was not that we should concentrate on MRSA (or any other disease) instead of this infection. I just wanted to point out with this example that we already face equally or even more deadly diseases for years without going into panic mode like now. In opposition to CoVID19 we know pretty well where MRSA comes from (basically the abuse of antibiotics in intensive mass animal farming for decades, which rendered many antibiotics effectless) and we cannot be bothered to do anything about it. Do you know of any hospital being closed because a lot of people get infected and die? Do you know of any measure to restrict antibiotics use in animal farming? But for this new disease we should go into "social quarantine"? That is laughable - not because of being wrong, but because of being so inconsistent with what we usually do with dangers of similar scope - which is: nothing.
krasnaya
@krasnaya
The problem is not so much the total number of infections, but the timespan in which they happen.
If hospitals are overwhelmed, the case fatality rate will be much higher than it needs to be. People will die who could have survived with appropriate care in an Intensive Care Unit.
Very few countries will have the option to fly in 1000s of extra doctors and nurses from other regions and build improvised hospitals within two weeks, as Wuhan did. So the best chance you have is to flatten the epidemic curve, even for highly developed countries with good healthcare systems. Italy is learning this the hard way at the moment, because it's too late for modest measures and they go rather nuclear now with a near-total lockdown, risking economic meltdown. Other countries should learn from this and act earlier.
The problem is not so much the total number of infections, but the timespan in which they happen.
If hospitals are overwhelmed, the case fatality rate will be much higher than it needs to be. People will die who could have survived with appropriate care in an Intensive Care Unit.
Very few countries will have the option to fly in 1000s of extra doctors and nurses from other regions and build improvised hospitals within two weeks, as Wuhan did. So the best chance you have is to flatten the epidemic curve, even for highly developed countries with good healthcare systems. Italy is learning this the hard way at the moment, because it's too late for modest measures and they go rather nuclear now with a near-total lockdown, risking economic meltdown. Other countries should learn from this and act earlier.
No more schools next monday in France
No more meeting more than 100 people from now
No more chess tournaments
May be that next week, we will have the same situation than in Italy
No more meeting more than 100 people from now
No more chess tournaments
May be that next week, we will have the same situation than in Italy
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