What if Abasov was not a Candidate?

Nijat Abasov had a fairytale performance at the World Cup, defeating higher rated opponents and finishing 4th. This was enough to qualify for the Candidates since Magnus Carlsen declined his spot. Unanimously, the pundits predicted Nijat would finish last, facing a magnificent seven rated >100 points higher. In fact, he has had some decent results including draws against Caruana, Nakamura, Nepomniachtchi (twice!) and Firouzja - a dream come true for a 2600+ GM. But it has also been a nightmare with four losses so far. Sadly, it's not like he was the victim of deep preparation or blown away in those games. He maintained a roughly level position but eventually cracked under the strain of playing with engine-like precision in every move.
Since Abasov has not spread his favours equally, I'm not sure his fellow candidates are that happy either as he is a randomising influence. Some are probably thinking, 'Why is he playing so well against ME?'. If we take away his results, we see how tight the tournament is except for Firouzja:
+2 Nepomniachtchi
+1 Gukesh
= Caruana, Nakamura, Praggnanandhaa, Vidit
-3 Firouzja

In the final rounds, Abasov will be playing the Indian trio who will be going all out against him. On the other hand, if they press too hard, he may yet score an upset victor.

You could make the same argument for Firouzja as well.

Round Robin has an intrinsic random component due to how the system works, and also due to the fact that human players in some days are in better shape than others.

Also, the tournament right now has 5 players within half a point. Looks pretty tight to me.

Let's keep in mind that Abasov is a 2650 player, which places him around the top 100 in the world. Maybe slightly below 100.

By any reasonable definition he's an extraordinary player.

While it's true the other players are slightly better, and probably view Abasov as the least dangerous player in this tournament, they all respect his talent and ability. And they all spend hours prepping to play him.

Let's also remember that each player has two games against Abasov, so everyone has their opportunity. Some have succeeded, like Nakamura and Fabi, while others have only managed a draw, like Nepo.

But the same is true of other players as well. Vidit, for example, has 3 wins, 3 losses, and 2 of his 3 wins came against Naka. Firouzja has four losses, same as Abasov.

Everyone has two chances, against every player, and they just have to make the most of it.