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It's not totally inconceivable that 1300 FIDE could be near 2000 here, esp for a player in the states or Canada or India or other countries where the FIDEs are super deflated (compared to Europe) and where a lot of players might not play much FIDE compared to USCF or whatever

I think there are a lot of factors that complicate this significantly tho. Some ppl just play online to test out stuff and don't care too much, others flag in time scrambles online because they're not fast, some people are better at seeing the pieces one way or another etc. That doesn't make this not a cool thing to look into; it's more a response to the eleuthero post.

Normally I'd say that the only thing that ever matters is OTB standard games. Unfortunately there isn't any of that right now so I certainly hope the community doesn't shift towards much shorter time controls and online chess after this someday blows over :(
My USCF ID: 16009687. And my lichess username is BraydonP of course. My chess.com and FIDE ratings do not accurately reflect my strength so I will not add those.
I'm up-to-date only in Lichess, sorry.

But I wonder how ratings changed during lockdown, as many many people joined, it seems low rated people tended to join, and then probably the other player's rating all went up.

From May 1st to now (June 23rd) my Blitz rating went up about 200 points. I've been studying and practicing chess, and I would like to know how much of this improvement was my better playing, and how much just change in the online chess population.

A person that plays the same level of chess all the time, never improving nor decreasing, and in May 1st was rated 1500, how much would they be now?

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